THE EFFECT OF MACROECONOMIC VARIABLES ON THE PERFORMANCE OF AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS IN NIGERIA

Abstract

This study examined the effect of macroeconomic variables on the performance of agriculturalexports in Nigeria from 1986 to 2022. The study specifically investigated the influence of consumer price index (inflation), broad money supply, lending rate, exchange rate, and real gross domestic product on non-oil agricultural exports. Annual time series data were obtained from secondary sources and analyzed using descriptive statistics, Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) unit root test, Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model, Error Correction Mechanism (ECM), and Pairwise Granger Causality test.

The findings revealed that consumer price index and exchange rate had positive and significant effects on agricultural exports in Nigeria, while broad  supply and lending rate exerted significant negative effects on non-oil agricultural exports. Real gross domestic product showed a positive but insignificant relationsmoneyhip with agricultural export performance. The ECM result indicated a strong adjustment from short-run disequilibrium to long-run equilibrium. Furthermore, the Granger causality test showed no causal relationship among the selected macroeconomic variables and agricultural exports. The study concluded that stable macroeconomic policies are essential for improving agricultural export performance and promoting sustainable economic diversification in Nigeria.